This afternoon, Monday (22/4/2024), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is set to disclose the export, import, and trade balance data for March 2024. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the consensus projects an average trade surplus of US$1.14 billion, with the highest estimate at US$1.73 billion and the lowest at a deficit of US$410 million. BCA Chief Economist David Sumual anticipates a trade surplus of US$1.7 billion for March 2024. Sumual predicts that the export and import performance for the period will experience a slowdown due to the high base effect from the same period last year.
“Last March saw significant highs in both imports and exports, likely due to the onset of Ramadan in March 2023 and increased coal exports after China’s reopening,” he told Bisnis on Sunday (21/4/2024). However, when compared to the previous month, Sumual noted that export and import performances tend to increase in March 2024.
“On a month-to-month basis, both exports and imports increased, mainly driven by the rise in commodity prices month-to-month, with cocoa up by 40%, CPO by 9%, coal, oil, and most other commodities,” he explained. Meanwhile, Bank Permata Chief Economist Josua Pardede stated that the trade surplus for March 2024 is estimated at US$1.63 billion.
He elaborated that this surplus resulted from improved export performance, growing by 8.05% month-on-month. However, the annual growth rate of export performance is expected to contract by -10.91% year-on-year. This development is primarily influenced by China’s economic acceleration, Indonesia’s largest trading partner, following the long Chinese New Year holiday in February.
“Demand from China is expected to improve, as evidenced by a 9.65% month-to-month increase in China’s imports from Indonesia in March 2024,” said Josua.
