New York — In a dramatic reversal of fortunes, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the social media company behind Truth Social, is experiencing a surge in stock price as former President Donald Trump’s chances of securing the White House in the 2024 election improve. After months of decline, the company’s stock has soared on Wall Street, reigniting investor enthusiasm and speculation about its future.
The stock had been languishing at historic lows, hitting $12.15 per share on September 23, 2024—a massive 82% drop from its March highs. The company, which has yet to launch any significant new revenue streams or products, had been written off by many investors as a failed venture. However, the narrative shifted sharply in the weeks following, as TMTG’s stock price more than doubled, rising nearly 150% in three weeks.
Last week alone, the stock surged by almost 50%, and Monday saw another 18% rise, leaving investors and market analysts in awe of the rapid turnaround. For a company that had previously been dismissed as a volatile “meme stock,” the current rally has brought renewed focus to TMTG as traders look to capitalize on its connection to Donald Trump.
What makes this surge even more unusual is the absence of any major corporate developments that would typically drive such a price spike. There have been no new product releases, strategic partnerships, or endorsements from influential financial figures. Instead, the driving force behind the rally is purely speculative—investors are betting on Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election.
The relationship between TMTG’s stock price and Trump’s political prospects is undeniable. As the election nears, investors are increasingly viewing the company’s stock as a proxy for Trump’s electoral success. If Trump wins the election, it could potentially breathe new life into the company, while a loss could send the stock plummeting.
Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, summed up the dynamic: “This stock is all about Trump’s political future. The market is placing bets on whether or not he’ll win the presidency. If he does, the stock could explode in value. If he loses, the company’s stock could become nearly worthless.”
Donald Trump is not only the face of TMTG but also its largest shareholder, holding 114.75 million shares. His dominance on Truth Social, where he is the most active and followed user, has become integral to the platform’s identity. As a result, the company’s fate is inextricably linked to Trump’s political trajectory.
Since September 23, the value of Trump’s stake in the company has skyrocketed, growing by $1.7 billion to reach a total of $3.4 billion. This increase reflects not only the rising stock price but also heightened investor interest as Trump’s poll numbers improve. Betting markets like PredictIt, which track the odds of election outcomes, have shown a significant shift toward Trump in recent weeks, further fueling the rally.
Jay Ritter, a professor of finance at the University of Florida who has studied capital markets for decades, described the 100% surge in TMTG’s stock as “remarkable.” However, Ritter cautioned that the spike is driven by election speculation rather than any fundamental changes in the company’s business model. “Meme stocks like this thrive on attention, and TMTG is benefiting from the election hype. Investors are betting on the outcome, not the company’s long-term viability.”
This sentiment is echoed by other market analysts, who point to the surge in options activity centered around the election. Michael Block, co-founder of AgentSmyth, noted that many traders are purchasing call options set to expire shortly after Election Day, a sign that they are betting heavily on a Trump win. “There’s a clear correlation between Trump’s improving poll numbers and the recent spike in TMTG’s stock price,” Block said. “Investors are positioning themselves for what they believe will be a Trump victory.”
Despite the impressive rally, TMTG’s stock is still far below its March 2024 peak of $66, and the value of Trump’s holdings has not yet fully recovered. The company remains highly volatile, with its future tied closely to the outcome of the election and the broader political landscape.
One key factor contributing to the stock’s resilience is Trump’s decision not to sell his shares. Many investors feared that when the insider lock-up period expired, Trump would offload his holdings, causing the stock price to collapse. However, Trump has publicly stated that he has no intention of selling, and he has not disclosed any stock sales. This has reassured traders that Trump remains committed to the company, providing a degree of stability during a period of heightened volatility.
“If Trump had started selling shares, we would have seen a completely different story,” Tuttle said. “His decision to hold on to his stake has given the stock the support it needed to rally.”
Nonetheless, skepticism remains about TMTG’s long-term prospects. Ritter and other financial experts argue that the stock’s current valuation is unsustainable, warning that the company lacks a clear path to profitability. Without a strong business model or consistent revenue streams, they believe the stock could be dramatically overvalued.
“At $25 per share, the company is grossly overvalued, likely by a factor of 10,” Ritter warned. “If TMTG doesn’t find a way to generate profits, the stock could eventually lose up to 90% of its value.”
As Election Day approaches, TMTG’s stock price will continue to reflect the ebb and flow of Trump’s political fortunes. Investors remain focused on every poll and prediction, knowing that the stock’s future hinges on the election outcome. With the race tightening, the market is bracing for even more volatility, making TMTG one of the most closely watched stocks on Wall Street.
